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The Fashion Formula For Oscar Success

With less than a week to go before the 91st Academy Awards take over the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, global fashion search platform Lyst crunched data to predict what this year’s Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress will be wearing to the Oscars.

Photo by Christopher Polk/Getty Images

In 2014 and 2015, Lyst used fashematics to successfully predict what Julianne Moore and Brie Larson would be wearing when they won the Best Actress awards at the Oscars.

After having analysed 90 years of Oscars fashion and fed the results through an algorithm factoring in designer, dress style, dress colour, jewellery and hairstyle, we have now revised and improved our mathematically true fashion formula for taking home a coveted Academy Award.

Ahead of this weekend’s 91st Academy Awards ceremony, Lyst has built out a uniquely detailed historical outfit database, drawing from the past 50 years of outfits at The Golden Globes, SAG Awards and BAFTAs, as well as 90 years of Oscars red carpet looks.

By looking at and analysing all the previous ceremonies, as well as feeding the results through our algorithm, we’ve predicted who and what this year’s winners will be wearing when they receive the coveted gold-plated statuettes.

An Image of Meryl Streep at the 2012 Oscars
Photo: Michael Buckner / Getty Images

The Formula

Lyst ran more than 10,000 Best Actress, Supporting Actress and nominee outfit combinations from The Oscars, The Golden Globes, the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs through this probability calculator.

The stats predict the following results

Best Actress: Olivia Colman will be wearing a black dress by Givenchy, accessorised with jewellery by Chopard.

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King will be wearing a pink Armani gown, accessorised with Bulgari jewels.

The Luckiest Designers

With 90 years of Oscars red carpet fashion, some designers have become firm favourites among Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress winners. Looking at who wore who over the last nine decades, we rounded up the six luckiest fashion houses to wear to the Academy Awards.

An Image of Viola Davis at the 2017 Oscars
Photo: Frazer Harrison / Getty Images

1. Armani

First Oscar Winner: Jessica Tandy in 1990, when she won the Best Actress award for her role in Driving Miss Daisy.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Viola Davis in 2017, when she won the Best Supporting Actress award for her role in Fences.

Over the last five years, 18 actresses have worn Armani to the Oscars.

2. Valentino

First Oscar Winner: Mercedes Ruehl in 1992, who won the Best Actress award for her role in The Fisher King.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Frances McDormand in 2018, who won the Best Actress award for her role in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Valentino also Julia Robert when she won the Oscar for Best Actress for her role in Erin Brockovich in 2001.

An Image of Cate Blanchett at the 2005 Oscars
Photo: Carlo Allegri / Getty Images
An Image of Jennifer Lawrence at the 2013 Oscars
Photo: Jason Merritt / Getty Images

3. Dior

First Oscar Winner: Elizabeth Taylor in 1961, who won the Best Actress award in 1961 for her role in Butterfield 8.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Jennifer Lawrence in 2013, who won the Best Actress award for her role in Silver Lining Playbook.

Jennifer tried on her dress for the first time on the morning of the Oscars.

4. Chanel

First Oscar Winner: Ingrid Bergman in 1975, who won the Best Actress award for her role in Murder on the Orient Express.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Julianne Moore in 2015, who won the Best Actress award for her role in Still Alice.

Chanel also dressed Marisa Tomei in 1993 when she won the Best Supporting Actress award for her role in My Cousin Vinny.

An Image of Julianne Moore at the 2015 Oscars
Photo: Frazer Harrison / Getty Images
An Image of Brie Larson at the 2016 Oscars
Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images

5. Gucci

First Oscar Winner: Helen Hunt in 1998, who won the Best Actress award for her role in As Good as It Gets.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Brie Larson in 2016, who won the Best Actress award for her role in Room.

Charlize Theron was also wearing a Gucci gown when she won her Best Actress Oscar in 2004.

6. Givenchy

First Oscar Winner: Audrey Hepburn in 1992, who won the Best Actress award for her role in Roman Holiday.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Emma Stone in 2017, who won the Best Actress award for her role in La La Land.

Emma wore the very last Haute Couture gown Riccardo Tisci designed for Givenchy. It took 11 people and more than 1,700 to make it, and was almost silver instead of gold. She was also the first woman to win an Oscar wearing Givenchy since Audrey Hepburn.

An Image of Emma Stone at the 2017 Oscars
Photo: Frazer Harrison / Getty Images
An Image of Marion Cotillard at the 2008 Oscars
Photo: Frazer Harrison / Getty Images

7. Jean Paul Gaultier

First Oscar Winner: Nicole Kidman in 2003, who won the Best Actress award for her role in The Hours.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Marion Cotillard in 2008, who won the Best Actress award for her role in La Vie en Rose.

When talking about the custom-made mermaid gown he designed for Marion Cotillard, the designer said “Marion initially requested something simple, but I wanted everyone to see the woman I saw.”

8. Saint Laurent

First Oscar Winner: Jane Fonda in 1972, who won the Best Actress award for her role in Klute.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Kate Winslet in 2009, who won the Best Actress award for her role in The Reader.

Jane Fonda was the first Best Actress winner to have worn trousers on the red carpet.

An Image of Kate Winslet at the 2009 Oscars
Photo: Frazer Harrison / Getty Images
An Image of Meryl Streep at the 2012 Oscars
Photo: Michael Buckner / Getty Images

9. Lanvin

First Oscar Winner: Tilda Swinton in 2008, who won the Best Supporting Actress award for her role in Michael Clayton.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Meryl Streep in 2012, who won the Best Actress award for her role in The Iron Lady.

Meryl Streep’s gown was made from eco-certified fabric.

10. Tadashi Shoji

First Oscar Winner: Mo’Nique in 2010, who won the Best Supporting Actress award for her role in Precious.

Most Recent Oscar Winner: Octavia Spencer in 2012, who won the Best Supporting Actress award for her role in The Help.

It only took one glance at a sketch for Octavia Spencer to decide that she wanted to wear that dress. “She saw my sketch and she loved my design. Just one sketch, that’s it,” explained the designer.

An Image of Octavia Spencer at the 2012 Oscars
Photo: Michael Buckner / Getty Images
An Image of Sandra Bullock at the 2010 Oscars
Photo: John Shearer / Getty Images

Special Mention: Marchesa

First and Most Recent Oscar Winner: Sandra Bullock in 2010, who won the Best Actress award for her role in The Blind Side.

Following the Harvey Weinstein scandal, Marchesa (his wife Georgina Chapman’s label) was first boycotted on the red carpet, before slowly but surely making a comeback. While we might not see the label’s designs on actresses who reported being bullied into wearing the label by Weinstein, others like Scarlett Johansson and Priyanka Chopra have already expressed their support by wearing Marchesa to high profile events.

Will one of this year’s Academy Award nominees make a statement by wearing one of the brand’s floral creations? Possibly. What’s sure is that we wouldn’t be surprised to see a few Marchesa gowns on the red carpet.

The Luckiest Colours

Over the years, 25.7% of actresses who played it safe and wore black to the ceremony won the Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress awards they were nominated for. Blue, white and multicoloured were also favoured by some of the winners.

In the past two years alone, both Emma Stone and Frances McDormand were wearing gold gowns when they won the award for Best Actress; meanwhile, both Viola Davis and Allison Janey were wearing red when they won the award for Best Supporting Actress.

As shown in this graph, black, gold, blue and grey are the luckiest colours when it comes to winning the award for Best Actress. Black, multicoloured, green, pink and red are the luckiest colours when it comes to winning the award for Best Supporting Actress. Meanwhile, white is equally as lucky in both categories.

The Oscars in Numbers

In 90 years, the Oscars have become one of the most talked about events of the year. With this much anticipation come some of the most iconic fashion moments of the past decades, from incredible gowns that required weeks of hard work, to some of the most expensive pieces of jewellery ever worn on a red carpet.

4,000

The price in dollars of Grace Kelly's 1955 dress, designed by Edith Head. At the time, it was the most expensive gown ever made.

10

The number of people it took to hand-bead the Givenchy Haute Couture coat Chadwick Boseman wore in 2018.

20,000,000

The price in dollars of the blue diamond necklace worn by Gloria Stuart in 1998.

1,700

The number of hours to took to make Emma Stone’s gold Givenchy dress in 2017. It was also the very last haute couture gown Riccardo Tisci designed for the house, and Stone was the first woman to win an Oscar wearing Givenchy since Audrey Hepburn.

2

The number of times best actresses received their award in their nightgowns. Luise Rainer in 1938, and Joan Crawford in 1946.

4

The number of best actresses to have worn trousers to collect their awards: Jane Fonda, Sissy Spacek, Jodie Foster, and Barbara Streisand.

17

The number of best actress winners whose names start with the letter J.

1

The number of women to have worn cycling shorts on the red carpet. Demi Moore did so in 1989.

18,000

The number of hand-cut squares that were sewn together to create Priyanka Chopra’s Ralph & Russo gown in 2017.

18,100,000

The cost in dollars of Cate Blanchett's full look at the 2016 Oscars. Her Armani Privé gown cost $100,000, and the Chopard jewels she wore were estimated at £18million.

13

The number of Best Supporting Actress winners whose names start with the letter M. Good news for Marina de Tavira, who could follow in the footsteps of Meryl Streep, Maggie Smith, Mo'Nique and Margaret Rutherford.

3

The number of winners who were pregnant when they collected their awards. In 2011, Natalie Portman wore purple maternity gown designed by Rodarte, who had also designed her ballet costumes in Black Swan.

500

The number of hours it took to create the Dior Haute Couture dress worn by Haley Bennett in 2018.

4,000,000

The advertising value in dollars of Jennifer Lawrence's 2013 Dior Couture gown.

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