Fashion faces up to a new normal

If 2019 ended on a note of optimism for the coming decade, the events of 2020’s first quarter quickly put a damper on it. After geopolitical tensions rose, wild fires ravaged Australia and Covid-19 gripped Asia, Balenciaga captured the uneasy mood with its ‘end of the world’ themed runway show held in Paris at the beginning of March.

But few in the fashion industry and beyond could have imagined what would come next. Within a matter of weeks coronavirus had evolved into a global crisis, changing everyday life beyond recognition. By the end of the quarter, the headwinds that brands and retailers first felt in China and East Asia had become a worldwide storm.

As vast swathes of the economy ground to a halt and populations were confined to their homes in response to the virus, consumer confidence fell and fashion was hit by an immediate drop in demand. Suddenly purchases were no longer being driven by social occasions, holidays and the need for office wear. And the well of inspiration consumers find from roving celebrities, glamorous events and street style photography started to dry up. On the supply side, meanwhile, coronavirus disrupted the industry in everything from sourcing raw materials through to manufacturing, logistics and retail operations – both bricks-and-mortar and online.

The Lyst Index for Q1 therefore reflects a period which has been anything but ‘business as usual’ in significant parts of Asia for most of the three months; and in Europe and North America for the final weeks of the quarter. The upcoming Q2 report will paint a clearer picture of Covid-19’s global impact, but for now, based on the Q1 data, consumers’ brand allegiances remain largely unchanged.

Off-White is the hottest brand in the world for the third successive quarter, reflecting the influence of younger shoppers who champion the label’s anti-establishment take on luxury. With a digital native approach, both Off-White (which surpassed 10m Instagram followers this quarter) and founder Virgil Abloh (5.2m followers) have a highly engaged social media following. Now more than ever, with consumers confined to their homes, seeking connections online, this type of loyal community is invaluable for brands. A New York Times article in February comparing Virgil Abloh to the late Karl Lagerfeld was widely shared online, helping to keep Off-White one of the most talked-about brands in fashion.

Following the buzz surrounding its Fall/Winter ‘20 show, Balenciaga rises one place to reclaim its position as 2nd hottest brand in the world, last held by the label in Q3 2019. Meanwhile Nike is among the fastest risers this quarter, climbing nine places into 3rd position – edging Gucci (now 4th) out of the top three for the first time since The Lyst Index began. The sportswear giant was propelled by a series of powerful global brand initiatives as well as increased consumer demand for products such as hoodies, sweatpants and shorts.

Coming in at 5th place, Prada climbs two places in The Lyst Index hottest brands ranking following the announcement in February that Belgian designer Raf Simons would become co-creative director alongside Miuccia Prada. The news also saw Raf Simons’ namesake label enter the hottest brands list for the second time ever, rising 12 positions to place 17th this quarter.

Jacquemus enters The Lyst Index hottest brands ranking for the first time, with the label’s accessories having previously made the hottest products section. The French brand climbs seven places to reach 15th position, after its supermodel-heavy Fall/Winter ‘20 show boosted social media mentions by over 1,100%. The other new entrants this quarter are Thom Browne and Rick Owens, both eponymous labels of US designers, each with a distinctive and consistent aesthetic.

At the time of writing the global outlook for fashion remains uncertain and fragmented, but there are green shoots of recovery in some of the earliest affected regions. We’ll continue to monitor the data closely, examining how shoppers respond to ‘the new normal’ of social distancing and economic uncertainty, while hoping for a swift return to better times. Although the crisis is far from over, it is galvanising to see the fashion industry pull together and draw on its resources, creativity and grit to weather the storm and give back to the community.